Lines moving towards Ravens and 49ers

Plenty of fans are jumping on the Colin Kaepernick bandwagon, as we’re seeing the 49ers as a road favorite at Atlanta, and the spread is actually moving even more in San Francisco’s direction.

Meanwhile, Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots opened as a big home favorite against the Ravens, but money has been coming in on Baltimore. The line is still more than a touchdown, but it’s definitely moving.

  

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Free picks: Can Vick and Philly rebound this week?


Image courtesy of Cleveland Browns Facebook page

When you look at the week 2 NFL lines, you see the huge influence of week 1 performances on conventional wisdom for the nest week’s picks. Yet we also know that in the NFL these days, matchups matter and a team’s performance can vary wildly from week to week, particularly in the first two weeks of the season.

Look at last night’s games. Green Bay’s defense looked pitiful in week 1, yet they had a great game last night and made Jay Cutler look like a clueless rookie. Don’t get too wed to week 1 performances.

Which brings us to Micheal Vick. He had a terrible game last week against a young Cleveland defense that pressured him all day. Now he’s going up against the Baltimore Ravens who beat up the Bengals last Monday night. The line is Philly favored at home by one or two points, but most of the action seems to be falling on the Ravens.

But will Vick repeat his bad performance from last week? Of course we don’t know, but we can’t just assume that he’ll make the same mistakes. Plus, Baltimore is on the road following a Monday night win. That’s a very important factor as they have a short week.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are also coming off a short week, and they are 7 point favorites against the Browns. This one is much harder to predict and I might stay away from it. You need to be careful about the Browns, as Brandon Weeden looked terrible in his first NFL start and Trent Richardson looked very rusty after not playing at all in the preseason. But these rookies are very hard to predict, and if they get their act together the Browns could be a tough opponent for Philly.

Just some food for thought . . .

  

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