Plenty of fans are jumping on the Colin Kaepernick bandwagon, as we’re seeing the 49ers as a road favorite at Atlanta, and the spread is actually moving even more in San Francisco’s direction.
Meanwhile, Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and the Patriots opened as a big home favorite against the Ravens, but money has been coming in on Baltimore. The line is still more than a touchdown, but it’s definitely moving.
It’s turkey day, and that of course means plenty of NFL football to go along with turkey and family gatherings. Check out our NFL Lines pages for all the odds for this weekend’s football action. In today’s games, the Detroit Lions try to break a long turkey day losing streak as the Houston Texans travel north. Houston is favored by three on the road.
RG3 is coming off a monster game and he leads the Washington Redskins into Dallas to face a Cowboys team that barely beat the Browns last week at home. Dallas is favored at home by three so this is basically a toss-up.
Finally, the New England Patriots travel to New Jersey tonight to take on the New York Jets. The Pats are favored by seven on the road even without Rob Gronkowski.
The first two weeks of the NFL season are always wild, as we really don’t know what many teams are made of. Keep that in mind when you’re looking at the NFL lines to make your picks. It’s easy to get caught up in the preseason hype or grand conclusions based on week one of the regular season.
Many of the fans in Cleveland and the experts around the country were convinced that Trent Richardson and Brandon Weeden would be “busts” after their tough debut in week one against a very touch Philly defense, but then both players bounced back with excellent games against Cincy in week two. If you ignored the hysteria and took the Browns last week, you would have either pushed if you had 7 points or you would have been a winner had you shopped around and gotten 7.5 points. You can always shop around for the best odds on our NFL live lines page powered by SBR which gives lines from seven different sources.
This week, the Browns are 3 point dogs at home against Buffalo. I like the Browns, but this one is far from a lock. Richardson and Weeden have a bright future if you look at last week’s game, but they’re still rookies, so they’ll have more tough games like the week one debacle. This game is tough to predict.
I like San Fran giving 6.5 points on the road against the Vikings. The 49ers look like the best team in the NFL right now, and while the Vikings look better, they’ll have a tough time against this monster defense.
Going into the season, the hype machine fueled by ESPN and other major sports outlets was in overdrive over Russell Wilson. In a way you had to feel sorry for the guy, as the odds are stacked against him in many ways as a 5′ 11″ mobile quarterback trying to make it in the NFL and start as a rookie. With the start of the NFL season, everyone was super-anxious for more sports betting, but all of that excitement led the hypesters and even the betters to make irrational statements and decisions.
For example, Bill Simmons named Russell Wilson was the quarterback who would have the biggest impact this NFL season as he would lead the Seahawks to the Super Bowl. Yes, this was absurd, but many NFL “experts” said similar things, even though Wilson had only played in the preseason. Again, anyone making grand proclamations based upon the NFL preseason is either stupid or is just getting caught up in silly hysteria. Things were even more crazy when you consider that the Seahawks went from being a road dog by three points in their opener at Arizona to a three-point favorite on the road after Wilson, a rookie, was named the starter.
Of course reality set in in game one, as Wilson struggled and fools like Simmons who put the Seahawks in all their parlay bets got killed in week one.
Fortunately for Wilson and the Seahawks, he played much better in game two, a home win against the Cowboys. Hopefully, all of the analysts have sobered up a bit and we can evaluate Wilson over time as he plays in real games. He faces Clay Matthews and the Green Bay pass rush on Monday night with Seattle as a three-point underdog at home, so we’ll see how he does with another test.
When you look at the week 2 NFL lines, you see the huge influence of week 1 performances on conventional wisdom for the nest week’s picks. Yet we also know that in the NFL these days, matchups matter and a team’s performance can vary wildly from week to week, particularly in the first two weeks of the season.
Look at last night’s games. Green Bay’s defense looked pitiful in week 1, yet they had a great game last night and made Jay Cutler look like a clueless rookie. Don’t get too wed to week 1 performances.
Which brings us to Micheal Vick. He had a terrible game last week against a young Cleveland defense that pressured him all day. Now he’s going up against the Baltimore Ravens who beat up the Bengals last Monday night. The line is Philly favored at home by one or two points, but most of the action seems to be falling on the Ravens.
But will Vick repeat his bad performance from last week? Of course we don’t know, but we can’t just assume that he’ll make the same mistakes. Plus, Baltimore is on the road following a Monday night win. That’s a very important factor as they have a short week.
Meanwhile, the Bengals are also coming off a short week, and they are 7 point favorites against the Browns. This one is much harder to predict and I might stay away from it. You need to be careful about the Browns, as Brandon Weeden looked terrible in his first NFL start and Trent Richardson looked very rusty after not playing at all in the preseason. But these rookies are very hard to predict, and if they get their act together the Browns could be a tough opponent for Philly.